An Eco-Success Story: Ozone Hole Recovery on Track
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World Meteorological Organization Set to Release 2026 Assessment
In late 2025. scientists at the US atmosphere-monitoring agencies reported that the year’s Antarctic ozone hole was the fifth smallest since 1992, the year the Montreal Protocol’s phase-out of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) began to take effect.
Now the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is preparing to release its next comprehensive Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion later this year. This evaluation, coauthored every four years by hundreds of international experts and supported by the UN Environment Programme, will provide the most definitive look yet at the ozone layer’s path toward a full midcentury recovery.
A ‘Healing’ in the Skies
The success of the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment—which targets climate-warming hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)—remains a beacon of environmental hope. By phasing out over 99% of controlled ODSs, the treaty is projected to avoid up to 0.5°C of global warming by 2100.
“Today, the ozone layer is healing,” said UN Environment Programme Executive Director Inger Andersen. “Ozone-depleting substances have now been virtually eradicated and the hole in the ozone layer is closing. That is multilateralism at its very, very best.”
The Road to 2040 and Beyond
Based on current recovery rates, the ozone layer is projected to return to 1980 levels—prior to the appearance of the significant “hole”—according to the following timeline:
2040 for the majority of the world
2045 over the Arctic
2066 over Antarctica.
“As predicted, we're seeing ozone holes trending smaller in area than they were in the early 2000s,” noted Paul Newman, a senior scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. “They're forming later in the season and breaking up earlier.”
Challenges for 2026 and Beyond
The 2026 Assessment is slated for release in late 2026 and will not only celebrate progress but address emerging threats.
Key concerns include the planned termination of NASA’s Aura mission, a satellite critical for monitoring atmospheric chemistry since 2004. Experts warn that losing such high-vertical-resolution data could impact long-term monitoring.
Further, the report will evaluate the potential ozone-thinning risks of "stratospheric aerosol injection"—a geoengineering technique proposed to cool the planet—and the need for stronger ground networks to detect illegal chemical emissions.