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The Hottest 12-month Period Above Baseline

Report Highlights Rise in Global Average Temperature and Heat Waves 


The team at Climate Central published a report based on analysis using their Climate Shift Index (CSI), expressing the likelihood that a temperature on a given day is attributed to “human-caused climate change.” CSI values range from -5 to 5, from five times less likely (negative values) to five times more likely (positive values) relatively. A value of 0 indicates no influence from climate change. The analysis covers the 12-month period of November 2022 to October 2023.  


Rise in Global Average Temperature and Heat Waves
  1. The global average temperature during this period was 1.32 °C (2.37 °F) above the pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900, beating the previous record of 1.29 °C (2.32 °F) from October 2015 to September 2016. 

  2. There were 108 countries with an annual CSI above 1 (in other words, temperatures being at least 1.5 times more likely due to climate change), including 44 countries in Africa and 32 countries in Asia. This was compared to a baseline of 1991–2020. 

  3. Out of 700 cities analyzed, 156 had “extreme” heat streaks of five days or more. 

  4. Out of 920 cities analyzed, the countries with the most “attributable” (in other words, an average CSI of 2 or higher) heat streaks were China (48), the United States (12), then Mexico (11), with the rest of the countries in the single digits, although the number of analyzed cities per country greatly varied from one (such as Yemen) to 314 (China).  

  5. The top 10 cities with the longest heat streaks comprise the United States (four cities, one with the highest of 22 days), Indonesia (three cities, one with the lowest of 15 days), Mexico (two cities, both with the lowest of 15 days), and China (one city). 

  6. Among G20 countries, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia had the highest mean CSI (2.4 and 2.3, respectively), while Australia and Canada had the lowest mean CSI (0.2). 

 

Sources: 

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