Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions No Longer in Lockstep

Countries’ Emission Mitigations Effective Even as Economies Expand

Annual emissions of carbon dioxide, by country, for the six countries with the most annual emissions. RCraig09/Wikimedia

A decade after the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, new analysis from the UK’s Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) reveals a striking shift: Economic expansion no longer guarantees carbon emissions growth, thanks to countries’ carbon emission mitigation efforts.

The 2025 ECIU report, “10 Years Post-Paris: How emissions decoupling has progressed globally,” examines emissions and GDP trends across 113 countries, offering the most comprehensive look yet at decoupling since Paris.

While global CO₂ emissions continue to rise, there is clear momentum toward cleaner energy growth—many economies are now growing without a corresponding rise in emissions, and an expanding group are even reducing emissions in absolute terms while their economies expand.

Here are key data points from the report:

• The 113 nations examined represented more than 97% of global GDP and 93% of global emissions.

• Ninety-two percent of global GDP is in countries that have absolutely or relatively decoupled CO₂ emissions from economic growth since 2015.

• The study defines absolute decoupling as emissions falling even as GDP grows and relative decoupling as emissions rising more slowly than GDP.

• Eighty-nine percent of global emissions come from decoupled economies—up sharply from the pre-Paris era.

• Growth in decoupling before the Paris Agreement (2005–2014):

  • 32 countries achieved absolute decoupling.

  • 35 countries achieved relative decoupling.

• Growth in decoupling since Paris (2015–2023):

  • 43 countries achieved absolute decoupling (emissions falling while GDP grows).

  • 40 countries achieved relative decoupling.

• Countries with absolute decoupling now represent 46.3% of global GDP and 36.1% of global emissions.

• The share of the global economy (GDP) in decoupled economies has climbed from 77% before Paris to 92% post-Paris.

• Global annual CO₂ emissions have effectively plateaued since 2015, rising by only about 1.17% over eight years, compared with an 18.4% increase in the decade before Paris.

Significance of the Findings

Aggregate global CO₂ emissions growth has slowed markedly in the Paris era compared with the decade before, illustrating structural shifts in energy systems (less rapid emissions growth relative to economic expansion).

The findings suggest that decoupling—once seen as a theoretical goal—is now a practical reality for most of the world’s economy. This trend offers policymakers evidence that economic development and climate action can be mutually compatible, though substantial emissions reductions must accelerate further to meet net-zero targets.

The full ECIU report, “10 Years Post-Paris: How emissions decoupling has progressed globally,” was published Dec. 11, 2025.