Global Wildfires Down, but Fire Risks Up

What Especially Africa and California Must Do to Snuff Out Threats

A wildfire travels up a mountainside. SONY ILCE/Unsplash

Incongruously, new research indicates that while wildfire incidence is down worldwide, the threat of wildfires to people and homes is rising precipitously.

Populations are expanding into fire-prone landscapes, according to a new global analysis published in Science and summarized in ScienceDaily. The study showed that, although the total area burned dropped by about 26%, human exposure to wildfires near their homes rose by some 7.7 million people per year, affecting 440 million people worldwide between 2002 and 2021.

Regions with disproportionate risk include sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 85% of all human wildfire exposures globally, and California, which despite contributing only about 15% of burned area in the United States, is home to 72% of US wildfire exposure.

Half of all global human exposure occurs in the five African nations of Congo, South Sudan, Mozambique, Zambia, and Angola. But the US, Europe, and Australia together account for only about 2.5% of the worldwide total.

Deterring Woodland Fires

To protect people living in fire-prone regions—especially in Africa and California—experts say the urgency is clear: Move from reaction to prevention. Several mitigation tools are proving effective:

• Prescribed burns and fuel reduction: Intentionally managed fires help remove built-up vegetation (fuels) that otherwise feed large wildfires. A recent Stanford-led study showed prescribed fires cut wildfire severity by about 16% in treated areas of the western U.S. and reduced smoke emissions by roughly 101 kilograms of PM_2.5 per acre in California, when accounting for both prescribed fires and future wildfire smoke.

• Forest thinning and restoration: Coupling thinning of dense undergrowth with prescribed fire improves forest health and reduces the risk of high-severity wildfire. A 20-year experiment in California’s Sierra Nevada found that thinning plus prescribed fire significantly lowered potential wildfire danger without harming forest biodiversity.

• Resilience and building practices in the wildland-urban interface: Homes need fire-resistant materials, defensible space (cleared areas around structures), and infrastructure planning that respects natural fire patterns. Policies must support communities to harden structures and avoid building in the most dangerous zones.

• Improved monitoring, early warning, and community preparedness: Satellite-based fire detection, weather forecasting that highlights “fire weather” (hot, dry, windy conditions), and early alert systems can give people time to act. In Africa especially, where 85% of global exposures occur, scaling these systems is vital.

A firefighter supervises a prescribed burn in California. Pexels

The Science study also documents a sharp increase in “fire weather”—conditions favoring fires (heat, low humidity, wind)—which have intensified significantly over recent decades.

Why Fire Mitigation Matters

The consequences of wildfire exposure are more than property loss. Smoke contributes to serious health risks—including respiratory, cardiovascular, and even long-term mortality related to fine particulates. Research in California and beyond shows that long-term exposure to wildfire smoke rises sharply in both rural and urban zones near fires.

To reduce the risk of wildfire threat, the following are the consensus courses of action:

• Scale up prescribed burns and thinning in Africa, California, and elsewhere, especially in zones where people live close to wildlands.

• Reform policies and permitting that delay burns or limit their implementation due to smoke fears—while still ensuring safety. Research shows the trade-offs strongly favor prevention over reacting to full-blown wildfires.

• Expand early warning and community education so that people know how to prepare, evacuate, and protect their health when smoke or fire threatens.

• Integrate fire risk into urban planning. Avoid risky land-use practices near wildlands, enforce building codes suited to fire exposure, and increase investment in fire-resistant infrastructure.

By adopting these strategies now, regions like Africa and California can reduce the growing mismatch between wildfire risk and human exposure—and protect lives, health, and communities.