New Analysis Projects Greater Global Plastic Pollution
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In 2020, the Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ published Breaking the Plastic Wave, a pioneering report that detailed how global plastic pollution was projected to nearly triple by 2040 unless bold action was taken to significantly curb pollution.
Five years later, Pew’s Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025 update offers a more complete picture of how plastics are impacting people, economies, and ecosystems worldwide. The new report revisits the original projections but expands the analysis beyond ocean pollution to include land, air, human health, and climate impacts. It also offers modeling of scenarios showing how ambitious, coordinated action could nearly reverse the trajectory of plastic pollution within a generation.
Key Data from Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025
In 2025, approximately 130 million metric tons (Mt) of plastic polluted the environment—including on land, in the air, and in water.
Without mitigation, this figure is projected to rise to 280 Mt per year by 2040—equivalent to dumping a garbage truck’s worth of plastic waste every second.
Annual primary plastic production is expected to grow 52%, from about 450 Mt in 2025 to 680 Mt in 2040, far outpacing improvements in waste management.
Even with investments, waste collection and disposal capacity is projected to increase only 26% by 2040.
Thus, the proportion of uncollected plastic waste is expected to rise from 19% to 34% over the same period.
Health impacts associated with plastic production, use, and pollution are projected to increase by 75% by 2040 if no action is taken.
Annual government spending on plastic collection and disposal is projected to reach $140 billion by 2040—roughly 30% higher than in 2025.
Annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the global plastic system could rise by 58% by 2040, totaling about 4.2 gigatons CO₂ equivalent.
Microplastics comprised 13% of global plastic pollution in 2025.
Key pollution sources include tire wear and paint (10 Mt each), agriculture (3 Mt), and recycling processes (2 Mt).
Without intervention, microplastic pollution could rise from 17 Mt to 26 Mt annually by 2040.
Important Takeaway:
The 2025 update to Breaking the Plastic Wave finds the plastic pollution problem is larger and more complex than previously quantified. Yet, the new report also shows that strategic, integrated action could drastically reduce pollution and unlock economic and social benefits if implemented swiftly and globally.