The Western US Winter That Didn’t Show Up
- 2 days ago
- 5 min read
Expert Warns of Earlier, Longer Wildfire Seasons—Calls for “Hand in Paw” Solutions
Across the American West, winter is no longer what it used to be. In 2026, scientists warned of a historic “snow drought”—a phenomenon where snowpack fails to accumulate even when precipitation occurs, often because temperatures are too warm for snow to form.
This shift, they said, may not be just a seasonal anomaly—it could be a structural change, with cascading consequences for water, ecosystems, and wildfire risk.
Snow deficits or droughts—which have also been seen in Europe and eastern Russia, according to a 2020 study—sit at the intersection of climate science, water security, and ecological resilience. In the American West, it raises urgent questions about how these communities can adapt as their “frozen reservoirs” disappear.
Irreplaceable Snowpacks
Snowpack functions as the West’s most important natural reservoir.
While lakes and man-made reservoirs hold a small fraction of the water needed each year, the mountain snowpacks supply up to 75% of annual water resources as they slowly melt through the spring and summer months.
In recent years—and dramatically in 2026—snow levels across much of the western US region fell, with some areas reporting near-record lows due to unusually warm winters and precipitation falling as rain instead of snow.
A Rainy Winter for Many
In California, state-of-the-art technology devised in conjunction with NASA—using lasers to record snow depth down to 3 cm (1.1 in)—has uncovered a worrying picture. This spring, snow was only 18% of the average for the time of year.
Unfortunately, California is not alone. According to the latest US Drought Monitor, almost two-thirds of the lower 48 states are now grappling with the impact of the most widespread spring dry spell since the monitor began recording 26 years ago.
This spring, snow [in California] was only 18% of the average for the time of year.
The consequences are already unfolding. Without snow cover, landscapes dry earlier, vegetation becomes more flammable, and wildfire seasons begin sooner and last longer. Already this year, wildfires have ignited unusually early across multiple regions, with hundreds of thousands of acres burned before spring even began—an alarming preview of what may become the new normal.
The Issue of Timing
The snow drought problem is twofold: Not only is there less water collected from snowmelt, but the timing of when the snow falls is making the impact worse. In an interview given earlier this year, Dr. Emily Fairfax, an eco-hydrologist and assistant professor at the University of Minnesota, explains that while the issue of not having enough water is clear, “[t]he timing is a little more nuanced.”
“If we have all of our precipitation coming too soon, and then we have a big dry period,—or if we oscillate back and forth between rain, snow, warm, cold, warm, cold—the end result is that we just don't have as much water at the end of the winter—and we've lost a lot, either to downstream runoffs that are premature or to evaporation,” she says.
Earlier Fire Season
Many US states are now experiencing the first devastating effect of snow drought—an earlier fire season.
Fairfax explains that forests comprising mostly conifers and evergreens are increasingly becoming drought-stressed: “You move into spring, you move into summer and they are already highly flammable, very dry fuels. You also have an effect of when your annuals die off in the fall and then leaf litter with all this brush and dead material. It's normally a nice insulating layer and habitat for a lot of really critical species, but it also becomes excessively dry, so you have a really flammable understory … underneath very flammable overstories and canopies.”
She adds: “There are multiple layers of pathways for fire to move quickly through entire landscapes.”
Many US states are now experiencing the first devastating effect of snow drought—an earlier fire season.
Downstream Effects
Just as mountain streams eventually trickle down to the sea, the snow drought’s impact will eventually hit the cities, towns, and farms of the plains.
Already, restrictions on the water supplied to some municipalities and agricultural concerns are increasing. The US Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation has issued an April–September 2026 water supply forecast for the Yakima Basin, which covers 10% of south-central Washington state. It predicts that those with pro-ratable water rights—such as cities, irrigation districts, individual farms and industries—will be receiving less than half of their full water allotments. It is expected other states will soon follow suit.
And the impact will not just be on the water supply but also on power. The forecast for Lake Powell—a reservoir on the Colorado River in Utah and Arizona—shows minimum power pool elevation being reached by December 2026. If the water drops below this point, the Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Arizona, which produces enough electricity to help supply the power needs for more than 350,000 homes, may no longer generate hydroelectricity. In late April, the Bureau of Reclamation announced additional water flow to mitigate the losses to this reservoir and dam.
The Small but Mighty Beaver
Countermeasures to snow drought range from forest thinning, prescribed burns, and regenerative land practices to building climate-resilient infrastructure.
But Fairfax believes the best and most cost-effective solutions come from nature itself—such as employing the humble beaver.
These semi-aquatic rodents have been a hydrologic force on the American continent for millions of years, she notes. They’ve been “doing things like restoring our rivers, building wetlands, supporting [as] ecosystem engineers. … That's one way to help slow the water down and make it accessible when we need it, without having to completely control everything ourselves.”
“Because honestly,” she adds, “we don't necessarily have the time or the money or the manpower to do it on our own. But luckily, nature can be our biggest ally.”
“Beavers and climate change actually go hand in paw. The beavers build wetlands, and these wetlands are exceptionally good at slowing water down, keeping it on the landscape, and routing it onto the floodplain, where it could seep into the soil and recharge those aquifers.”
“Beavers and climate change actually go hand in paw. The beavers build wetlands, and these wetlands are exceptionally good at slowing water down, keeping it on the landscape, and routing it onto the floodplain, where it could seep into the soil and recharge those aquifers.”
In fact, beavers are the perfect partners, Fairfax continues: “Beaver wetlands are unique because they're the only wetland type that has an engineer on staff 24/7/365, permanently dedicated to keeping that part of the land wet, healthy, and soggy.”
Separately, research is being done at Stanford University on where to reintroduce beaver populations in the West, says a 2025 article in Water Online. The North American beaver population has fallen from an estimated 60 million to 400 million in the mid-1800s to roughly 10 million to 15 million today “because of extensive hunting, habitat degradation, and trapping,” the article said.
Human endeavors can help, as well, Fairfax notes: “We can engage in restoration; we can try to restore large wood to our rivers. We can do riparian planting, basically planting the things that like to live alongside creeks, so that they can help slow water down, too.”
She adds that changing our behavior, from where we allow livestock to graze, to designing zonal developments giving rivers enough space, will also have a positive impact. “Rivers can serve a lot of purposes, and today one of the most important purposes is helping us deal with these increasingly dry winters and flammable springs and summers.”
“Challenges like these often feel like they are out of our control, but they’re not,” she concludes. “If every county, if every stream just inches a little bit more towards health, that can have a really cascading difference. And it can be something we can see.”
*Gordon Cairns is a freelance journalist and teacher of English at the Forest Schools, based in Scotland.
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